The Real Crisis Isn’t Drones — It’s Munitions Depth.

By: Will Edwards, Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Firehawk Aerospace

Drones are having their moment in the limelight. Their global prominence, largely due to their widespread use in the war in Ukraine, has fueled billions of dollars in investments into several hundred companies that develop and manufacture uncrewed systems. Some costing less than $1,000, drones are affordable, scalable, and attritable technologies that are now part of the battlefield.

And yet, we can’t overlook one critical truth: drones can’t be decisive without weapons systems and munitions that deliver the full range of kinetic effects and lethality. 

Uncrewed systems are appealing to investors and media due to their visibility and impact in a regional conflict. They excel at ensuring security on the move, streamlining logistics, painting the C2 picture, and delivering offensive and defensive lethality. They are key to long-range theater-level conflicts. 

But looking beyond the current events in Eastern Europe, drones won’t be the silver bullet for any future conflict for the United States or our allies against a near-peer adversary. 

Simply put, they are part of the fight, but won’t win the fight on their own. What wins wars is not the volume of drones. It’s sustained volume of firepower. 

In the event of a large-scale near-peer conflict, estimates indicate that the U.S. would run out of long-range precision missiles in a week. But immediate munitions shortfalls aren’t the only issue – what’s worse is that we can’t replenish them fast enough to secure an enduring advantage.

Production shortfalls and fragile rocket supply chains prevent us from keeping pace. The Pentagon’s stock of Patriot missiles, for example, is at just 25% of the requirement for planned military operations. Annual production of only around 600 units will compound the deficit – especially during wartime. 

Ongoing support for Ukraine has increased demand for key munitions like extended-range artillery shells, ATACMS, Sparrow, Javelin, and Stinger missiles. We’re running out of things to throw at potential adversaries, we’re not adding to the pile nearly fast enough, and our adversaries know it. 

Victory on the future battlefield will demand volume – and an industrial capability to not only create stockpiles of these munitions, but also to accelerate and sustain a high rate of production for an extended timeframe.

Therein lies one of the most pressing issues for U.S. and allied militaries. The supply chain and production capacity for these critical munitions are only as strong as their weakest link. And one of the weakest of those links is the ability to produce propellant and rocket motors – required components for every missile and rocket system.

To be sure, there have been recent new entrants and investments made into the rocket and missile industrial base – and that’s encouraging. But it’s not enough. This is an all-hands-on-deck problem that needs as many innovators and producers as possible to address. Accelerating munitions production capacity requires evolution AND revolution, particularly in shoring up our propellant and rocket motor supply.

The vast majority of U.S. propellant suppliers rely on processes that are not designed for rapid, distributed production and can take weeks.

That capacity may be acceptable in a conflict where neither side fires a single shot, but it doesn’t support deterrence, defense, and decisive victory in a future near-peer conflict that is likely to be fought primarily with interceptors, missiles, and rockets.

Firehawk was founded precisely to solve this challenge. We have a singular purpose: to provide a reliable and scalable supply of propellant and energetics – delivering scalable, tailorable, and trusted systems that define the future of defense and secure an enduring advantage.

By using relatively inexpensive commercial-off-the-shelf equipment and novel additive manufacturing processes, we can reduce per-unit production times by over 99% compared to traditional methods. This fundamentally reshapes the energetics supply chain. Our solution is: 

• Fast. Novel process and chemistry enable production in hours instead of days, helping to close the gap from warehouse to warfighter.
• Scalable & secure. Smaller, distributed facilities reduce the risk of single-point failures and make supply chains more resilient. Smaller locations are also easier to conceal and reduce the threat of supply chain disruptions.
• Deployable. Containerized production can move closer to the fight, making propellant available where it’s needed most urgently.
• Ready now. Firehawk has executed several successful tests and hot fires. Our technical capability is mature, not just proof of concept.

Sustained firepower requires urgent reinforcement of the propellant and rocket motor foundation that underpins every missile, rocket, interceptor, and extended range artillery round. If we continue with the status quo, we risk fielding an impressive array of systems and platforms that can’t be armed fast enough to make a difference when conflict arises. 

The solution is straightforward: modernize and augment the energetics supply chain with new technology that’s ready to contribute to the mission today. Fund distributed and deployable production methods. Treat propellant like the critical defense infrastructure that it is.